The Saints have a bunch of problems but their inability to score points early in games might be their biggest problem.

Their first 15 plays don’t work very well. They’ve tried kicking to start and receiving to start. They’ve tried to chip their way way down the field. Air it out. Nothing seems to work. Not all of it is due to the scheme. There have been fumbles and interceptions within the scripted range of plays. But, yes, it’s been as bad as you think.

When things are going like this, you start to wonder about different things. Of course, the Drew Brees-led offense was pretty much the standard. And I’m sure we could go back and look up a bunch of stats there that are mind-blowing, and we will get to that in a minute. But how did it look last year?

Probably not a fair comparison, given that Derek Carr was on the team. And definitely not a fair comparison if you compare the end of last season with a healthy team from the beginning of this season. But those are our only two options, and the second one feels more fair. So, I went back to last year and looked at the openers (first 15 plays) in the games Spencer Rattler started and compared them to all games this year. Here’s how the passing numbers shake out:

• 2024: 70% completion rate, 8.7 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 105 QB rating

• 2025: 62.5%, 6 yards per attempt, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 68.7 rating

Interestingly enough, the run game has been better early in games than it was last year. This group is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, while the team averaged 4.2 yards per carry in our cherry-picked games from last season. And the team was at 4.7 yards per carry last year in all games.

Adding to this, here are some other league-wide facts:

• The Saints and Cardinals are the only teams that have not thrown a touchdown pass on their openers. The Seahawks lead the NFL with seven.

• The Saints, Bengals and Panthers are the only teams with a QB rating under 70 on these plays.

• New Orleans’ nine sacks on those plays are the third most in the NFL.

• The team has only thrown for 25 first downs, the second-fewest in the NFL, ahead of only the Jets (19).

This is all notable and surprising because the first 15 plays are usually tailored to specifically work against the opponent and the team drills them and perfects them. It’s an area where the Saints really used to succeed.

From 2006–2021, the Saints hit on 68.7% of their passes for 7.3 yards per attempt with 79 TDs, 48 INTs and 92.7 rating. Wildly enough, the best season might have come in 2015, a rebuilding year, when Drew Brees hit on 70.3% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Using quarterback rating, the team’s best years on openers since 2006 were 2015 (116.7), 2011 (110.2), 2009 (105.7) and …. 2024 (102.9).

Naturally, this created some curiosity about how the numbers looked when Klint Kubiak had Derek Carr leading his offense during the openers. And it was pretty damn good. 71%, 9.3 yards per attempt (highest by a full yard since 2006) and only one sack on 69 attempts.

DID YOU KNOW

… that Quincy Riley has a 77.2 passer rating against this season? That ranks 33rd among NFL quarterbacks, which isn’t a bad place for a fourth-round pick to exist just a few games into his career.

Riley has allowed 53.8% of the passes thrown at him to be completed (which also coincidentally ranks 33rd) for 209 yards and one touchdown. He also has one interception.

Riley still has a lot to prove, but he does look like a viable starter with room to grow. That’s a bright spot this season.

DROPPED PASSES

I don’t know if this means anything or not, but it is interesting. Spencer Rattler threw 274 passes this season and had nine dropped. Tyler Shough has thrown 128 passes and has had seven passes dropped.

It felt like it was happening way more with Rattler … but that isn’t actually true. As a whole, the Saints drops have kind of felt like an epidemic but that really hasn’t been the case. Their 16 drops rank 16th in the league. The Jags lead with 31 and the Seahawks are last with 4.

I guess it’s kind of one of those things that stand out more when you’re losing because the drops aren’t getting overcome.

KICKER SWITCH

The Saints made an interesting decision to go with Cade York over Justin Tucker at kicker … for now. The two players worked out for the Saints on Tuesday, and New Orleans decided to go with the 24-year-old York over the 36-year-old Tucker.

York, the former LSU kicker, was once viewed favorably enough to get selected in the fourth round of the draft. But he was cut after one season by the Browns, and then last year spent time with Washington and Cincinnati. He hit 81.8 of attempts in five games with the Bengals.

Going with York makes sense. He’s younger. He has upside. But the fact is, if things don’t go well, there’s probably a good chance that Justin Tucker still won’t be with a team. Someone would need to be willing to overlook the sexual misconduct allegations that led to him starting the season on suspension. And beyond that, he only hit 73.3% of his field goals last season, so there’s a chance he isn’t the All-Pro talent he once was. There’s pretty good odds that he’ll be sitting on the open market if the Saints want to circle back.

If not? Oh well. There are other kickers out there. For now, there will be high pressure on York. He’s going to need to come in and be lights out to keep this job.

ALMOST MOMENTS

The no-call wasn’t supposed to happen.

Terron Armstead recently revealed on Kay Adams’ show that New Orleans was supposed to run the trick play in the NFC title game against the Rams. Sean Payton had called Pass 84 Lineman Special and something happened to where the official stopped him from reporting as eligible because someone else had reported as eligible the play before.

So, it never happened. But I asked Terron how it was supposed to work.

“Unbalanced line. I’m at the left tackle spot but I’m the tight end because I report eligible. Drew does a quick play action as I pass set and get depth behind Drew. He throws it to me and boom.”

Boom, presumably, is getting the ball into the hands of a 6-foot-5, 305-pound lineman who had 4.7 speed. Armstead said they practiced the play quite a bit and it was in for years, but that was the only time it was ever called.

TANKATHON

For those keeping track, the Saints are currently third in the draft order, behind only the Titans and Giants.

New York almost did the Saints a favor last week by almost beating the Lions, but they fell in overtime. The Jets are fourth in the order.

The Titans host the Jags this week, the Giants play the Patriots on Monday night and the Jets host the Falcons. The Saints, obviously, travel to Florida to play the Dolphins.

All tough games, but the Patriots are the only ones that feel unbeatable from that group.

INTRIGUING

Interesting disparity in tempo usage (as PFF tracks it) between Tyler Shough’s first three starts.

• Los Angels Rams: 7

• Carolina: 8

• Atlanta: 21

Not sure what it means or why the team would go away from it. Maybe it was to allow Shough to settle in a bit and get in the flow of the offense and get used to calling plays before turning up the speed. But there was definitely a throttling down for a few weeks there. The Giants, Patriots and Bears games are the only other ones where the Saints have been under 10 plays of tempo.

Sample size is too small, but it is interesting that Shough has completed 51.7% of his passes with two picks on-tempo plays and is at 68% without it. The Saints run for 3.5 yards per carry without tempo and 4.1 with it.

Progressing?

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